Lavoisier Labs
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The 30% problem: why formulations fail at scale-up

Why lab-perfect recipes break in the plant — and how process digital twins with quantified risk help.

  • scale-up
  • process
  • digital-twin
The 30% problem: why formulations fail at scale-up

Industry folklore says a painful fraction of formulations that work in the lab fail in the plant. The exact percentage varies by segment — the mechanism does not.

Why scale-up breaks recipes

  • Mixing and heat transfer regimes change with volume.
  • Control uncertainty and impurity profiles differ from the lab.
  • The team that designed the formula and the team that runs the process use different tools.

What a process digital twin changes

Studio Pro keeps thermodynamics explicit, shows AI corrections separately, and quantifies off-spec probability under control uncertainty (e.g. Monte Carlo scenarios) before capital is committed.

Formula-to-process handoff on a shared CAS backbone is how we attack the organizational wall — see Studio Pro and Process Control Agents.

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New notes when we publish.

Formulation, process, and plant AI — without the marketing fog.